LFS April 2024: Jobs gains blowing past expectations as unemployment holds steady

An impressive increase in Canada’s employment of 90K jobs, while the unemployment rate held simultaneously steady at its two-year peak of 6.1%, makes this one of the strongest data releases in recent months.  As employment figures continue edging higher, it remains outpaced by the rapid growth of the country’s labour force. Wage growth is showing signs of slowing down but these numbers do not guarantee that the Bank of Canada will issue a rate cut in June. The likelihood of a rate cut in July may increase pending CPI data.

KEY TAKEWAYS

• While the unemployment rate held steady at its two-year peak from March at 6.1%, slightly below market expectations (6.2%), employment had an impressive growth of 90K (+0.4%) net jobs in April, far exceeding advance estimates (+25K).
• In contrast to a year earlier, unemployment rates were higher among all major demographic groups, particularly amongst racialized groups. The largest among youth (+2.9%) – excluding 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, this marks the highest level since July 2016 (almost 8 years!). The unemployment rate rose for core-aged Black Canadians, South Asians, and Chinese Canadians.
• Employment gains were driven by part-time work (+50K; +1.4%) – this was up by 2.9% (104K) from a year prior (April 2023) as compared to full-time employment which also saw an annual uptick of 1.7% (+273K).
• The bump in employment was among core-aged (25 to 54 years old) men (+41K; +0.6%) – for the third consecutive month – and women (+27K; +0.4%) as well as mostly in the private sector. Employment in the sector rose in April (+50K, +0.4%) following a four-month little-change streak.
• Total hours worked increased in April by 0.8%, up by 1.2% from a year prior which bodes well for Q2 GDP.
• Average hourly wages rose 4.7% (+$1.57 to $34.95) year-over-year, following an increase of 5.0% in February.
• Employment increases were notable in professional, scientific and technical services (+26K; +1.3%), accommodation and food services (+24K; +2.2%), health care and social assistance (+17K; +0.6%) and natural resources (+7.7K; +2.3%), where in contrast we saw modest decline in utilities (-5K; -3.1%).
• Employment increased in eight provinces in April except for Newfoundland and Labrador as well as Nova Scotia.

SUMMARY TABLES

Sources: Statistics Canada; Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab

Sources: Statistics Canada; Canadian Chamber of Commerce Business Data Lab

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